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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still