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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."